Longitudinal analysis of blood markers reveals progressive loss of resilience and predicts human lifespan limit
Pyrkov TV · Avchaciov K · Tarkhov AE · Menshikov LI · Gudkov AV · Fedichev PO
Nature Communications · 2021
What the research tells us
The study constructs a blood-count-based DOSI and examines age-related changes in its autocorrelation. Age-group correlation times of roughly 2–8 weeks motivate dynamic ageing markers. The proposed 120–150-year limit comes from extrapolation beyond observed ages, not direct measurement of a human lifespan limit.
Scope & interpretation
Some longitudinal data lack clinical status, and selection on DOSI affects interpretation. Group-average autocorrelation is not an individual's observed recovery after a defined stressor. Linear extrapolation into unobserved ages cannot establish a hard biological limit.
Study at a glance
- POPULATION & SAMPLE
- NHANES modelling and UK Biobank validation; 1,082 people with longitudinal blood counts, reduced to 407 for the DOSI-selected non-frail dynamic analysis, plus separate activity data.
- EXPOSURE / INTERVENTION / SUBJECT
- Blood-count mortality models, repeated-measure autocorrelation and comparisons with activity sequences.
- OUTCOMES
- Mortality-model C-index of .68 in training, .67 in testing and .65 in UK Biobank; dynamic fluctuations and age associations were also analysed.
- TIME FRAME
- Source-specific repeated measurements and follow-up; correlation times are measured in weeks, while lifespan extrapolation extends beyond observed ages.
Editorial & review record
Record for v1.0 · Updated
Editorial responsibility: TAP Editorial Team
Scientific review
Not yet scientifically reviewed
Editorial note
Under the editorial responsibility of the TAP Editorial Team, this publication used AI assistance for content organization and editing. Scientific review is recorded separately on this page.
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How responsibilities and review are recorded ↗Scope of this reading note
Full-text DOSI dynamics, methods, Figure 3, extrapolation discussion and disclosures. All data processing and sensitivity analyses have not been independently reproduced.
- Study funding
- Supported by Gero PTE.
- Competing interests
- Several authors were Gero employees, with additional shareholder and advisory-board relationships.
Project support
Founded and supported by Resilio.
Revision history
- · v1.0
Added the dynamic ageing-marker study, distinguishing extrapolated lifespan from observed recovery.